{ "meta": { "generatedAt": "2026-10-21T03:05:49.483Z", "nDivisions": 87, "inputs": { "demographics": { "path": "data/demographics/ed-demographics-2021.json", "sha256": "e6cf3660ec51995151deed1cdc4729259fcaeb447613bbf69f138fbd846eb298", "fetchedAt": "2026-10-21T01:24:02.671Z" }, "election": { "path": "data/demographics/ed-election-metrics.json", "sha256": "492708528ee4f82aac618bcc8094850d79cde9100e8257a07e738ebe70d34a4f", "fetchedAt": "2026-10-21T01:31:01.087Z" }, "electionCompleteness": { "pollsReporting": 5089, "totalPolls": 5583, "fraction": 0.9115 }, "geo": { "path": "data/geo/alberta-eds.geojson", "sha256": "7be73771bc71ea603f6382735b64f74b69dd2f4e0af8db6091806033a620116c" }, "names": { "path": "data/ed-names.json", "sha256": "e73c029e7d49e23d3617b2b4bff9213fc808b0b4967ae8f24e3c634ede03f3d1" } }, "vintage": "Demographics: 2021 Census (published 2022-2023). Results: 2026 referendum unofficial count. Boundaries: 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions (2019 outline; 2026 Elections Alberta names).", "methods": { "correlation": "Pearson and Spearman (tie-corrected ranks), n per cell, two-sided exact t-based p-values; Benjamini-Hochberg FDR within the exported demographic x outcome family; no causal interpretation.", "regression": "OLS on z-scored outcome and predictors; complete cases only; block-wise forward selection (entry p < 0.05, max 2 per block, VIF <= 5, max 8 predictors); 95% CI from the t distribution; sensitive variables excluded; exploratory, not confirmatory.", "clustering": "k-means with k-means++ seeding, fixed seed 20261021, 100 inits; k chosen by maximum silhouette among k=2..8 with bootstrap mean ARI >= 0.70; stability from 200 bootstrap resamples (ARI vs full-sample partition).", "spatial": "Queen contiguity from data/geo/alberta-eds.geojson (boundary distance tolerance 1e-3 degrees), row-standardised weights, Moran's I with 9999 permutations; expected value -1/(n-1); upper-tail permutation p.", "turnout": "Primary = ballots / population 18+ (2021 total population minus ages 0-4 and 5-17); secondary = ballots / Canadian citizens 18+ (2021, 25% sample count). Both are labelled; neither is a registered-voter turnout rate.", "sensitivity": "Every outcome association is recomputed on the 43 divisions fully reported at the snapshot (reportingCompleteness == 1); directionStable requires the same sign and |delta r| <= 0.20." }, "analysisPlan": { "primaryOutcomes": [ "remainShare", "turnout18" ], "secondaryOutcomes": [ "turnoutCitizen18", "q1to9YesShareMean", "advanceShare", "vbmShare" ], "regressionOutcomes": [ "remainShare", "turnout18" ], "moranVariables": [ "remainShare", "turnout18", "medianHouseholdIncome", "pct65plus", "pctPostsecondary", "pctVisibleMinority" ], "exploratoryAdditions": [ "turnoutCitizen18", "q1to9YesShareMean", "advanceShare", "vbmShare", "opportunity-mix diagnostics" ] }, "dataQualityFlags": { "zeroVoteDivisions": [ "34" ], "zeroVoteRule": "ballots == 0 means no votes counted at capture: all outcome values are null, the division is excluded from every n and never imputed.", "partialResults": true, "pollsReporting": 5089, "totalPolls": 5583, "pollsReportingFraction": 0.9115, "divisionsFullyReported": 43, "divisionsBelow50Completeness": 7, "unresolvedVariables": [], "variablesWithMissingValues": {}, "smallPopulationDivisions": [], "smallPopulationThreshold": 5000, "boundaryOverlapMin": 0.990842, "censusRoundingNote": "Census counts are randomly rounded to the nearest 5; percentages are derived from counts and inherit that rounding. 25% sample variables carry sampling error (TNR per division in wards[].dataQuality).", "opportunityBaseNote": "advance/electionDay/vbm/mobile shares use the all-ten-question valid-vote base (not Q11 ballots) and are provisional until the count completes, as poll types report at different speeds. opportunity.other (1,213 votes in ED 40) is excluded from the four-way mix.", "religionNote": "Religion shares are 25% sample, population in private households; they are descriptive context only and are never used as regression predictors.", "turnoutDenominatorNote": "turnout18 and turnoutCitizen18 divide 2026 ballots by the 2021 Census 18+ population. Where the population grew between 2021 and 2026 (fast-growing urban divisions) the 2021 denominator is smaller than the 2026 electorate, so the proxy is biased upward; it is not a registered-voter turnout rate. The 18+ counts are 2021 vintage and the citizens 18+ numerator is a 25% sample count." }, "guardrails": [ "Aggregate data only - no individual inference.", "Ecological fallacy applies: division-level association does not describe individuals.", "Demographics are the 2021 Census; results are the 2026 referendum; no causal claims.", "Sensitive variables (Indigenous identity, ethnicity, language, immigration, religion) are descriptive context, never explanations of vote choice.", "Random rounding and 25% sample/TNR caveats apply to census variables.", "Results completeness caveat: 5089/5583 polls reported (91.15%) and 43/87 divisions fully reported at the frozen snapshot; numbers will change.", "n = 87 divisions (86 with counted ballots); multiple-testing correction (BH) reported for the correlation family.", "No imputation: missing values are null and excluded from n." ], "variablesResolved": 39, "variablesTotal": 39 }, "variables": [ { "id": "population", "label": "Total population", "shortLabel": "Population", "group": "population", "unit": "count", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 0, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 5, 100% data)", "reliability": "100pct", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "published PED total", "sourceFields": [ "total_population" ], "derivation": "total_population", "description": "2021 Census population of the provincial electoral division.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pct65plus", "label": "Population aged 65+", "shortLabel": "65+", "group": "age", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "age_65_plus", "total_population" ], "derivation": "age_65_plus / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population aged 65 years and over.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pct25to44", "label": "Population aged 25-44", "shortLabel": "25-44", "group": "age", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 5, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "pop_25_44", "total_population" ], "derivation": "pop_25_44 / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population aged 25 to 44 years.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pct45to64", "label": "Population aged 45-64", "shortLabel": "45-64", "group": "age", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "age_45_49", "age_50_54", "age_55_59", "age_60_64", "total_population" ], "derivation": "(age_45_49 + age_50_54 + age_55_59 + age_60_64) / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population aged 45 to 64 years.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pct18to24", "label": "Population aged 18-24", "shortLabel": "18-24", "group": "age", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 5, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "pop_18_24", "total_population" ], "derivation": "pop_18_24 / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population aged 18 to 24 years.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctChildren0to17", "label": "Population aged 0-17", "shortLabel": "0-17", "group": "age", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 5, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "pop_0_4", "pop_5_17", "total_population" ], "derivation": "(pop_0_4 + pop_5_17) / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population aged 0 to 17 years (0-14 is not published at PED level).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctFemale", "label": "Female population share", "shortLabel": "Female", "group": "sex", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "total_population", "sourceFields": [ "women_plus_population", "total_population" ], "derivation": "women_plus_population / total_population * 100", "description": "Share of the division population identifying as women+ in the 2021 Census.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "avgHouseholdSize", "label": "Average household size", "shortLabel": "Household size", "group": "households", "unit": "persons", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "100pct", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "households_total (published average)", "sourceFields": [ "avg_household_size" ], "derivation": "published avg_household_size", "description": "Average number of persons per private household in the division.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctLonePersonHouseholds", "label": "One-person households", "shortLabel": "Lone-person hh", "group": "households", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "households_total", "sourceFields": [ "hh_1_person", "households_total" ], "derivation": "hh_1_person / households_total * 100", "description": "Share of private households occupied by one person.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "loneParentPct", "label": "Lone-parent families", "shortLabel": "Lone-parent", "group": "families", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "census_families_total", "sourceFields": [ "one_parent_families", "census_families_total" ], "derivation": "one_parent_families / census_families_total * 100", "description": "Share of census families that are one-parent families.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctRenterHouseholds", "label": "Renter households", "shortLabel": "Renters", "group": "dwellings", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "tenure_total", "sourceFields": [ "renter_households", "tenure_total" ], "derivation": "renter_households / tenure_total * 100", "description": "Share of private households that rent their dwelling (25% sample; sampling error applies).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "medianHouseholdIncome", "label": "Median household income", "shortLabel": "Household income", "group": "income", "unit": "CAD", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 0, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "households with income", "sourceFields": [ "median_household_income" ], "derivation": "published median_household_income (2020 dollars)", "description": "Median total income of private households in 2020 (2021 Census, 25% sample).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "medianFamilyIncome", "label": "Median family income", "shortLabel": "Family income", "group": "income", "unit": "CAD", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 0, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "economic families with income", "sourceFields": [ "median_economic_family_income" ], "derivation": "published median_economic_family_income (2020 dollars)", "description": "Median total income of economic families in 2020 (2021 Census, 25% sample).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "medianIndividualIncome", "label": "Median individual income", "shortLabel": "Individual income", "group": "income", "unit": "CAD", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 0, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "income recipients aged 15+", "sourceFields": [ "median_income_total" ], "derivation": "published median_income_total (2020 dollars)", "description": "Median total income of individuals aged 15+ in 2020 (2021 Census, 25% sample).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "lowIncomePct", "label": "Low-income prevalence (LIM-AT)", "shortLabel": "Low income", "group": "income", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "lim_total (population in private households)", "sourceFields": [ "lim_prevalence" ], "derivation": "published lim_prevalence (LIM-AT, integer percent)", "description": "Share of the population in private households in low income based on LIM-AT.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctPostsecondary", "label": "Postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree", "shortLabel": "Postsecondary", "group": "education", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64", "sourceFields": [ "postsecondary_25_64", "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64" ], "derivation": "postsecondary_25_64 / cert_dip_deg_total_25_64 * 100", "description": "Share of the population aged 25-64 with a postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctBachelorPlus", "label": "Bachelor degree or higher", "shortLabel": "Bachelor+", "group": "education", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64", "sourceFields": [ "bachelor_plus_25_64", "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64" ], "derivation": "bachelor_plus_25_64 / cert_dip_deg_total_25_64 * 100", "description": "Share of the population aged 25-64 with a bachelor degree or higher.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctNoCertificate", "label": "No certificate, diploma or degree", "shortLabel": "No certificate", "group": "education", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64", "sourceFields": [ "no_cert_dip_deg_25_64", "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64" ], "derivation": "no_cert_dip_deg_25_64 / cert_dip_deg_total_25_64 * 100", "description": "Share of the population aged 25-64 with no certificate, diploma or degree.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctHighSchool", "label": "High-school diploma", "shortLabel": "High school", "group": "education", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64", "sourceFields": [ "hs_diploma_25_64", "cert_dip_deg_total_25_64" ], "derivation": "hs_diploma_25_64 / cert_dip_deg_total_25_64 * 100", "description": "Share of the population aged 25-64 whose highest credential is a high-school diploma.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "unemploymentRate", "label": "Unemployment rate", "shortLabel": "Unemployment", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "in_labour_force", "sourceFields": [ "unemployed", "in_labour_force" ], "derivation": "unemployed / in_labour_force * 100", "description": "Unemployed share of the population aged 15+ in the labour force.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "participationRate", "label": "Participation rate", "shortLabel": "Participation", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "labour_force_total_15plus", "sourceFields": [ "in_labour_force", "labour_force_total_15plus" ], "derivation": "in_labour_force / labour_force_total_15plus * 100", "description": "Labour-force participation of the population aged 15+.", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "employmentRate", "label": "Employment rate", "shortLabel": "Employment", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "labour_force_total_15plus", "sourceFields": [ "employed", "labour_force_total_15plus" ], "derivation": "employed / labour_force_total_15plus * 100", "description": "Employed share of the population aged 15+.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctFullTimeFullYear", "label": "Full-year full-time workers", "shortLabel": "Full-time FY", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "work_activity_total_15plus", "sourceFields": [ "worked_full_year_full_time", "work_activity_total_15plus" ], "derivation": "worked_full_year_full_time / work_activity_total_15plus * 100", "description": "Share of the population aged 15+ who worked full year and full time in 2020.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctImmigrant", "label": "Immigrant population", "shortLabel": "Immigrant", "group": "immigration", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "immigrant_status_total", "sourceFields": [ "immigrants", "immigrant_status_total" ], "derivation": "immigrants / immigrant_status_total * 100", "description": "Share of the population in private households who are immigrants (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctCitizens18plus", "label": "Canadian citizens aged 18+", "shortLabel": "Citizens 18+", "group": "immigration", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample + File 5 age groups)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "total_population - pop_0_4 - pop_5_17", "sourceFields": [ "canadian_citizens_18_plus", "total_population", "pop_0_4", "pop_5_17" ], "derivation": "canadian_citizens_18_plus / (total_population - pop_0_4 - pop_5_17) * 100", "description": "Canadian citizens aged 18+ as a share of the population aged 18+ (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctNonOfficialLanguage", "label": "Non-official language spoken most often at home", "shortLabel": "Non-official language", "group": "language", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "lang_most_often_single_responses", "sourceFields": [ "lang_most_often_non_official", "lang_most_often_single_responses" ], "derivation": "lang_most_often_non_official / lang_most_often_single_responses * 100", "description": "Share whose most-often-spoken language at home is a non-official language (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctFrench", "label": "French spoken most often at home", "shortLabel": "French language", "group": "language", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 1, 100% data)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "100pct", "denominator": "lang_most_often_single_responses", "sourceFields": [ "lang_most_often_french", "lang_most_often_single_responses" ], "derivation": "lang_most_often_french / lang_most_often_single_responses * 100", "description": "Share whose most-often-spoken language at home is French (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctIndigenous", "label": "Indigenous identity", "shortLabel": "Indigenous", "group": "indigenous", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "indigenous_total", "sourceFields": [ "indigenous_identity", "indigenous_total" ], "derivation": "indigenous_identity / indigenous_total * 100", "description": "Share of the population in private households with Indigenous identity (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctVisibleMinority", "label": "Visible minority population", "shortLabel": "Visible minority", "group": "ethnicity", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "visible_minority_total", "sourceFields": [ "visible_minority_population", "visible_minority_total" ], "derivation": "visible_minority_population / visible_minority_total * 100", "description": "Share of the population in private households who are a visible minority (descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctCatholic", "label": "Catholic", "shortLabel": "Catholic", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_catholic", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_catholic / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share of the population in private households reporting Catholic (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctChristian", "label": "Christian (total)", "shortLabel": "Christian", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_christian", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_christian / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share of the population in private households reporting a Christian religion (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctNoReligion", "label": "No religion or secular perspective", "shortLabel": "No religion", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_none_secular", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_none_secular / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share reporting no religion or a secular perspective (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctMuslim", "label": "Muslim", "shortLabel": "Muslim", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_muslim", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_muslim / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share reporting Muslim (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctSikh", "label": "Sikh", "shortLabel": "Sikh", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_sikh", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_sikh / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share reporting Sikh (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctHindu", "label": "Hindu", "shortLabel": "Hindu", "group": "religion", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "religion_total (population in private households, 25% sample)", "sourceFields": [ "religion_hindu", "religion_total" ], "derivation": "religion_hindu / religion_total * 100", "description": "Share reporting Hindu (25% sample; descriptive context only).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": true, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "medianDwellingValue", "label": "Median dwelling value", "shortLabel": "Dwelling value", "group": "dwellings", "unit": "CAD", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 0, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "25pct_sample", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "owner households", "sourceFields": [ "median_dwelling_value" ], "derivation": "published median_dwelling_value (2021 dollars)", "description": "Median value of dwellings owned by private households (2021 Census, 25% sample).", "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "label": "Owner households", "shortLabel": "Owners", "group": "dwellings", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "tenure_total", "sourceFields": [ "owner_households", "tenure_total" ], "derivation": "owner_households / tenure_total * 100", "description": "Share of private households owning their dwelling (25% sample).", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctMiningOilGas", "label": "Mining and oil-and-gas industry", "shortLabel": "Mining/oil-gas", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "all_industries", "sourceFields": [ "ind_mining_oil_gas", "all_industries" ], "derivation": "ind_mining_oil_gas / all_industries * 100", "description": "Share of the employed labour force aged 15+ working in mining and oil-and-gas extraction.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] }, { "id": "pctAgricultureForestry", "label": "Agriculture and forestry industry", "shortLabel": "Ag/forestry", "group": "labour", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 1, "source": "2021 Census PED profile (File 2, 25% sample)", "reliability": "derived", "sampleBasis": "25pct_sample", "denominator": "all_industries", "sourceFields": [ "ind_agriculture_forestry", "all_industries" ], "derivation": "ind_agriculture_forestry / all_industries * 100", "description": "Share of the employed labour force aged 15+ working in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.", "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "resolved": true, "missingFields": [] } ], "outcomes": [ { "id": "remainShare", "label": "Remain share", "shortLabel": "Remain", "group": "result", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "description": "Share of valid votes on question 11 (remain vs separation referendum) cast for remain." }, { "id": "marginPoints", "label": "Remain margin (percentage points)", "shortLabel": "Margin (pp)", "group": "result", "unit": "percentage points", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Remain share minus referendum share, in percentage points (signed; positive = remain ahead)." }, { "id": "ballots", "label": "Ballots counted", "shortLabel": "Ballots", "group": "result", "unit": "count", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 0, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Valid ballots counted on question 11 at the frozen snapshot." }, { "id": "turnout18", "label": "Turnout (population 18+)", "shortLabel": "Turnout 18+", "group": "turnout", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": true, "sensitive": false, "description": "Ballots divided by the 2021 Census population aged 18+ (total population minus ages 0-4 and 5-17); primary turnout proxy, labelled as a 2021-vintage denominator (upward-biased where the 2026 electorate grew)." }, { "id": "turnoutCitizen18", "label": "Turnout (citizens 18+)", "shortLabel": "Turnout citizen 18+", "group": "turnout", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Ballots divided by 2021 Census Canadian citizens aged 18+; secondary turnout proxy (25% sample denominator)." }, { "id": "advanceShare", "label": "Advance-poll share of votes", "shortLabel": "Advance", "group": "opportunity", "unit": "percent", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Advance-poll votes as a share of all-question valid votes; provisional opportunity-mix measure." }, { "id": "electionDayShare", "label": "Election-day share of votes", "shortLabel": "Election day", "group": "opportunity", "unit": "percent", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Election-day (ordinary poll) votes as a share of all-question valid votes; provisional opportunity-mix measure." }, { "id": "vbmShare", "label": "Vote-by-mail share of votes", "shortLabel": "VBM", "group": "opportunity", "unit": "percent", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Vote-by-mail/special-ballot votes as a share of all-question valid votes; provisional opportunity-mix measure." }, { "id": "mobileShare", "label": "Mobile-poll share of votes", "shortLabel": "Mobile", "group": "opportunity", "unit": "percent", "direction": "neutral", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Mobile-poll votes as a share of all-question valid votes; provisional opportunity-mix measure." }, { "id": "q1to9YesShareMean", "label": "Mean YES share, questions 1-9", "shortLabel": "Q1-9 YES mean", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Mean YES share across questions 1-9 over questions with a non-zero total." }, { "id": "closeness", "label": "Closeness", "shortLabel": "Closeness", "group": "result", "unit": "index", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 4, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "1 - |remain margin in percentage points| / 100 (0-1; 1 = tied, 0 = unanimous)." }, { "id": "reportingCompleteness", "label": "Reporting completeness", "shortLabel": "Reporting", "group": "quality", "unit": "index", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 4, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "Polls reporting divided by total polls in the division at the frozen snapshot (0-1; data-quality index, not an outcome)." }, { "id": "q1YesShare", "label": "Question 1 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q1 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 1." }, { "id": "q2YesShare", "label": "Question 2 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q2 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 2." }, { "id": "q3YesShare", "label": "Question 3 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q3 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 3." }, { "id": "q4YesShare", "label": "Question 4 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q4 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 4." }, { "id": "q5YesShare", "label": "Question 5 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q5 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 5." }, { "id": "q6YesShare", "label": "Question 6 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q6 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 6." }, { "id": "q7YesShare", "label": "Question 7 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q7 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 7." }, { "id": "q8YesShare", "label": "Question 8 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q8 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 8." }, { "id": "q9YesShare", "label": "Question 9 YES share", "shortLabel": "Q9 YES", "group": "questions", "unit": "percent", "direction": "higher", "decimals": 2, "pickerDefault": false, "sensitive": false, "description": "YES share of valid votes on referendum question 9." } ], "wards": [ { "code": "01", "number": 1, "name": "Calgary-Acadia", "censusName": "Calgary-Acadia", "region": "Calgary", "population": 47590, "population18": 39615, "citizens18": 34745, "demographics": { "population": 47590.0, "pct65plus": 17.4, "pct25to44": 30.5, "pct45to64": 27.7, "pct18to24": 7.7, "pctChildren0to17": 16.8, "pctFemale": 50.0, "avgHouseholdSize": 2.0, "pctLonePersonHouseholds": 33.2, "loneParentPct": 18.1, "pctRenterHouseholds": 40.1, "medianHouseholdIncome": 81000.0, "medianFamilyIncome": 103000.0, "medianIndividualIncome": 42000.0, "lowIncomePct": 11.0, "pctPostsecondary": 67.3, "pctBachelorPlus": 34.2, "pctNoCertificate": 7.9, "pctHighSchool": 24.8, "unemploymentRate": 13.3, "participationRate": 67.6, "employmentRate": 58.6, "pctFullTimeFullYear": 33.5, "pctImmigrant": 24.3, "pctCitizens18plus": 87.7, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 11.2, "pctFrench": 0.6, "pctIndigenous": 3.9, "pctVisibleMinority": 24.1, "pctCatholic": 22.0, "pctChristian": 48.0, "pctNoReligion": 46.0, "pctMuslim": 2.3, "pctSikh": 0.1, "pctHindu": 1.2, "medianDwellingValue": 468000.0, "pctOwnerHouseholds": 59.9, "pctMiningOilGas": 3.4, "pctAgricultureForestry": 0.3 }, "outcomes": { "remainShare": 80.87, "marginPoints": 61.74, "ballots": 23995, "turnout18": 60.57, "turnoutCitizen18": 69.06, "advanceShare": 56.81, "electionDayShare": 23.31, "vbmShare": 19.29, "mobileShare": 0.59, "q1to9YesShareMean": 45.88, "closeness": 0.3826, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "q1YesShare": 47.04, "q2YesShare": 47.0, "q3YesShare": 53.71, "q4YesShare": 50.12, "q5YesShare": 51.62, "q6YesShare": 33.76, "q7YesShare": 48.55, "q8YesShare": 39.54, "q9YesShare": 41.61 }, "cluster": { "demographicCluster": 2, "outcomeCluster": 1 }, "residuals": { "remainShare": -0.56, "turnout18": 0.05 }, "dataQuality": { "pollsReporting": 57, "totalPolls": 57, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "validVotesAllQuestions": 161144, "unattributedVotes": 0, "noOnAllNine": false, "censusDirect": true, "alias": false, "boundaryOverlap": 0.99576, "tnr100": 2.2, "tnr25": 3.7, "smallPopulation": false } }, { "code": "02", "number": 2, "name": "Calgary-Beddington", "censusName": "Calgary-Beddington", "region": "Calgary", "population": 48020, "population18": 38270, "citizens18": 34150, "demographics": { "population": 48020.0, "pct65plus": 16.0, "pct25to44": 26.3, "pct45to64": 29.0, "pct18to24": 8.4, "pctChildren0to17": 20.3, "pctFemale": 50.7, "avgHouseholdSize": 3.0, "pctLonePersonHouseholds": 20.2, "loneParentPct": 18.7, "pctRenterHouseholds": 25.5, "medianHouseholdIncome": 95000.0, "medianFamilyIncome": 106000.0, "medianIndividualIncome": 41600.0, "lowIncomePct": 9.0, "pctPostsecondary": 64.1, "pctBachelorPlus": 30.2, "pctNoCertificate": 9.9, "pctHighSchool": 26.0, "unemploymentRate": 13.8, "participationRate": 64.5, "employmentRate": 55.6, "pctFullTimeFullYear": 31.8, "pctImmigrant": 32.5, "pctCitizens18plus": 89.2, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 19.8, "pctFrench": 0.4, "pctIndigenous": 4.1, "pctVisibleMinority": 39.3, "pctCatholic": 19.9, "pctChristian": 46.5, "pctNoReligion": 43.0, "pctMuslim": 5.8, "pctSikh": 0.6, "pctHindu": 0.6, "medianDwellingValue": 400000.0, "pctOwnerHouseholds": 74.6, "pctMiningOilGas": 2.9, "pctAgricultureForestry": 0.4 }, "outcomes": { "remainShare": 83.25, "marginPoints": 66.5, "ballots": 19891, "turnout18": 51.98, "turnoutCitizen18": 58.25, "advanceShare": 57.62, "electionDayShare": 22.66, "vbmShare": 19.24, "mobileShare": 0.48, "q1to9YesShareMean": 43.8, "closeness": 0.335, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "q1YesShare": 53.88, "q2YesShare": 40.06, "q3YesShare": 45.43, "q4YesShare": 46.32, "q5YesShare": 51.2, "q6YesShare": 39.97, "q7YesShare": 40.94, "q8YesShare": 37.26, "q9YesShare": 39.14 }, "cluster": { "demographicCluster": 2, "outcomeCluster": 1 }, "residuals": { "remainShare": 0.36, "turnout18": -0.76 }, "dataQuality": { "pollsReporting": 53, "totalPolls": 53, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "validVotesAllQuestions": 139253, "unattributedVotes": 0, "noOnAllNine": false, "censusDirect": true, "alias": false, "boundaryOverlap": 0.996946, "tnr100": 1.4, "tnr25": 2.2, "smallPopulation": false } }, { "code": "03", "number": 3, "name": "Calgary-Bow", "censusName": "Calgary-Bow", "region": "Calgary", "population": 53150, "population18": 40990, "citizens18": 37075, "demographics": { "population": 53150.0, "pct65plus": 14.4, "pct25to44": 27.0, "pct45to64": 28.6, "pct18to24": 7.1, "pctChildren0to17": 22.9, "pctFemale": 51.3, "avgHouseholdSize": 3.0, "pctLonePersonHouseholds": 25.3, "loneParentPct": 13.9, "pctRenterHouseholds": 24.1, "medianHouseholdIncome": 112000.0, "medianFamilyIncome": 140000.0, "medianIndividualIncome": 50000.0, "lowIncomePct": 8.0, "pctPostsecondary": 78.5, "pctBachelorPlus": 51.6, "pctNoCertificate": 4.9, "pctHighSchool": 16.6, "unemploymentRate": 12.0, "participationRate": 69.0, "employmentRate": 60.7, "pctFullTimeFullYear": 36.2, "pctImmigrant": 25.1, "pctCitizens18plus": 90.4, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 11.6, "pctFrench": 0.6, "pctIndigenous": 3.9, "pctVisibleMinority": 27.4, "pctCatholic": 20.8, "pctChristian": 45.5, "pctNoReligion": 44.9, "pctMuslim": 4.7, "pctSikh": 0.8, "pctHindu": 1.5, "medianDwellingValue": 552000.0, "pctOwnerHouseholds": 75.9, "pctMiningOilGas": 7.3, "pctAgricultureForestry": 0.3 }, "outcomes": { "remainShare": 81.45, "marginPoints": 62.9, "ballots": 29033, "turnout18": 70.83, "turnoutCitizen18": 78.31, "advanceShare": 53.51, "electionDayShare": 32.68, "vbmShare": 12.57, "mobileShare": 1.24, "q1to9YesShareMean": 47.79, "closeness": 0.371, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "q1YesShare": 47.08, "q2YesShare": 44.65, "q3YesShare": 51.87, "q4YesShare": 50.83, "q5YesShare": 57.37, "q6YesShare": 45.14, "q7YesShare": 47.01, "q8YesShare": 42.39, "q9YesShare": 43.77 }, "cluster": { "demographicCluster": 1, "outcomeCluster": 1 }, "residuals": { "remainShare": -0.63, "turnout18": 0.42 }, "dataQuality": { "pollsReporting": 69, "totalPolls": 69, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "validVotesAllQuestions": 229634, "unattributedVotes": 0, "noOnAllNine": false, "censusDirect": true, "alias": false, "boundaryOverlap": 0.996655, "tnr100": 2.4, "tnr25": 3.6, "smallPopulation": false } }, { "code": "04", "number": 4, "name": "Calgary-Buffalo", "censusName": "Calgary-Buffalo", "region": "Calgary", "population": 58390, "population18": 53825, "citizens18": 42010, "demographics": { "population": 58390.0, "pct65plus": 11.8, "pct25to44": 52.8, "pct45to64": 18.7, "pct18to24": 8.8, "pctChildren0to17": 7.8, "pctFemale": 48.1, "avgHouseholdSize": 2.0, "pctLonePersonHouseholds": 56.8, "loneParentPct": 10.6, "pctRenterHouseholds": 72.0, "medianHouseholdIncome": 69500.0, "medianFamilyIncome": 103000.0, "medianIndividualIncome": 46800.0, "lowIncomePct": 17.0, "pctPostsecondary": 78.9, "pctBachelorPlus": 56.7, "pctNoCertificate": 4.9, "pctHighSchool": 16.3, "unemploymentRate": 12.2, "participationRate": 77.2, "employmentRate": 67.8, "pctFullTimeFullYear": 40.8, "pctImmigrant": 32.5, "pctCitizens18plus": 78.0, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 17.9, "pctFrench": 0.7, "pctIndigenous": 3.3, "pctVisibleMinority": 39.2, "pctCatholic": 15.0, "pctChristian": 34.0, "pctNoReligion": 52.2, "pctMuslim": 5.6, "pctSikh": 0.6, "pctHindu": 4.3, "medianDwellingValue": 360000.0, "pctOwnerHouseholds": 28.0, "pctMiningOilGas": 6.3, "pctAgricultureForestry": 0.3 }, "outcomes": { "remainShare": 85.48, "marginPoints": 70.95, "ballots": 24402, "turnout18": 45.34, "turnoutCitizen18": 58.09, "advanceShare": 40.44, "electionDayShare": 40.21, "vbmShare": 15.87, "mobileShare": 3.49, "q1to9YesShareMean": 38.89, "closeness": 0.2905, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "q1YesShare": 39.18, "q2YesShare": 36.83, "q3YesShare": 37.49, "q4YesShare": 41.93, "q5YesShare": 50.33, "q6YesShare": 35.57, "q7YesShare": 40.93, "q8YesShare": 32.97, "q9YesShare": 34.76 }, "cluster": { "demographicCluster": 1, "outcomeCluster": 1 }, "residuals": { "remainShare": 0.38, "turnout18": -0.17 }, "dataQuality": { "pollsReporting": 78, "totalPolls": 78, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "validVotesAllQuestions": 178430, "unattributedVotes": 0, "noOnAllNine": false, "censusDirect": true, "alias": false, "boundaryOverlap": 0.995246, "tnr100": 6.4, "tnr25": 8.1, "smallPopulation": false } }, { "code": "05", "number": 5, "name": "Calgary-Cross", "censusName": "Calgary-Cross", "region": "Calgary", "population": 48280, "population18": 37590, "citizens18": 30845, "demographics": { "population": 48280.0, "pct65plus": 15.9, "pct25to44": 26.9, "pct45to64": 26.3, "pct18to24": 8.9, "pctChildren0to17": 22.1, "pctFemale": 49.6, "avgHouseholdSize": 3.0, "pctLonePersonHouseholds": 20.2, "loneParentPct": 20.5, "pctRenterHouseholds": 28.6, "medianHouseholdIncome": 82000.0, "medianFamilyIncome": 91000.0, "medianIndividualIncome": 34800.0, "lowIncomePct": 11.0, "pctPostsecondary": 47.9, "pctBachelorPlus": 18.8, "pctNoCertificate": 20.5, "pctHighSchool": 31.6, "unemploymentRate": 16.1, "participationRate": 61.1, "employmentRate": 51.3, "pctFullTimeFullYear": 26.5, "pctImmigrant": 45.6, "pctCitizens18plus": 82.1, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 32.6, "pctFrench": 0.4, "pctIndigenous": 3.1, "pctVisibleMinority": 64.9, "pctCatholic": 20.4, "pctChristian": 43.4, "pctNoReligion": 24.4, "pctMuslim": 19.0, "pctSikh": 5.2, "pctHindu": 2.5, "medianDwellingValue": 348000.0, "pctOwnerHouseholds": 71.4, "pctMiningOilGas": 1.6, "pctAgricultureForestry": 0.4 }, "outcomes": { "remainShare": 84.23, "marginPoints": 68.45, "ballots": 15506, "turnout18": 41.25, "turnoutCitizen18": 50.27, "advanceShare": 42.43, "electionDayShare": 40.8, "vbmShare": 16.36, "mobileShare": 0.41, "q1to9YesShareMean": 44.43, "closeness": 0.3155, "reportingCompleteness": 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"pctIndigenous", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": -0.3772, "p": 0.000317, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctIndigenous", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": -0.1746, "p": 0.105862, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctIndigenous", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.2639, "p": 0.013515, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctIndigenous", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": 0.3477, "p": 0.000967, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctCatholic", "r": 0.1469, "p": 0.174475, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctChristian", "r": -0.6308, "p": 5.83e-11, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctNoReligion", "r": -0.6412, "p": 2.24e-11, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctMuslim", "r": 0.883, "p": 1.16e-29, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctSikh", "r": 0.6486, "p": 1.1e-11, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctHindu", "r": 0.7934, "p": 5.11e-20, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": 0.1736, "p": 0.107788, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": -0.0994, "p": 0.359437, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": -0.3144, "p": 0.003024, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctVisibleMinority", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.5689, "p": 8.98e-09, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctChristian", "r": 0.2496, "p": 0.019708, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctNoReligion", "r": -0.1882, "p": 0.080887, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctMuslim", "r": 0.1325, "p": 0.221022, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctSikh", "r": -0.1467, "p": 0.175209, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctHindu", "r": -0.0038, "p": 0.971912, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": 0.0534, "p": 0.623326, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": 0.1529, "p": 0.157468, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.1101, "p": 0.309943, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctCatholic", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.3976, "p": 0.000137, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctNoReligion", "r": 0.0043, "p": 0.968568, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctMuslim", "r": -0.5588, "p": 1.85e-08, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctSikh", "r": -0.5564, "p": 2.21e-08, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctHindu", "r": -0.5701, "p": 8.21e-09, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": -0.3048, "p": 0.004103, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": 0.3622, "p": 0.000565, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.1846, "p": 0.086871, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctChristian", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": 0.5743, "p": 6.04e-09, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctMuslim", "r": -0.6439, "p": 1.73e-11, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctSikh", "r": -0.6649, "p": 2.18e-12, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctHindu", "r": -0.5923, "p": 1.52e-09, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": 0.2062, "p": 0.055389, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": -0.2537, "p": 0.017759, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.2078, "p": 0.053459, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctNoReligion", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": 0.0112, "p": 0.917939, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "pctSikh", "r": 0.5182, "p": 2.74e-07, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "pctHindu", "r": 0.558, "p": 1.96e-08, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": 0.0661, "p": 0.542846, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": -0.1236, "p": 0.253929, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": -0.2766, "p": 0.009513, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMuslim", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.4731, "p": 4e-06, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctSikh", "b": "pctHindu", "r": 0.7821, "p": 3.8e-19, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctSikh", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": -0.001, "p": 0.992484, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctSikh", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": 0.123, "p": 0.256541, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctSikh", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": -0.1987, "p": 0.065009, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctSikh", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.1965, "p": 0.068115, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctHindu", "b": "medianDwellingValue", "r": 0.1217, "p": 0.261374, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctHindu", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": -0.016, "p": 0.883151, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctHindu", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": -0.1294, "p": 0.232392, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctHindu", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.3834, "p": 0.000247, "n": 87 }, { "a": "medianDwellingValue", "b": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "r": 0.1109, "p": 0.306402, "n": 87 }, { "a": "medianDwellingValue", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.0597, "p": 0.583087, "n": 87 }, { "a": "medianDwellingValue", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": -0.4646, "p": 6e-06, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "b": "pctMiningOilGas", "r": 0.1001, "p": 0.356338, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": 0.2055, "p": 0.056192, "n": 87 }, { "a": "pctMiningOilGas", "b": "pctAgricultureForestry", "r": 0.1823, "p": 0.091078, "n": 87 } ], "note": "Pearson correlations among the demographic portrait variables (collinearity context)." }, "regression": [ { "outcome": "remainShare", "n": 86, "nDropped": 0, "k": 4, "r2": 0.911, "adjR2": 0.9066, "fStat": 207.227, "fP": 1.08e-41, "conditionNumber": 7.4, "predictors": [ { "variable": "pctAgricultureForestry", "beta": -0.4288, "se": 0.0464, "t": -9.234, "p": 2.74e-14, "ci95": [ -0.5212, -0.3364 ], "vif": 1.96 }, { "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "beta": -0.3129, "se": 0.0354, "t": -8.836, "p": 1.67e-13, "ci95": [ -0.3834, -0.2425 ], "vif": 1.14 }, { "variable": "pctBachelorPlus", "beta": 0.4923, "se": 0.0502, "t": 9.808, "p": 2.02e-15, "ci95": [ 0.3924, 0.5922 ], "vif": 2.29 }, { "variable": "loneParentPct", "beta": 0.2228, "se": 0.042, "t": 5.31, "p": 9.41e-07, "ci95": [ 0.1393, 0.3063 ], "vif": 1.6 } ], "selectionPath": [ { "variable": "pctAgricultureForestry", "entryP": 5.83e-21, "step": 1 }, { "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "entryP": 4.79e-12, "step": 2 }, { "variable": "pctBachelorPlus", "entryP": 3.18e-10, "step": 3 }, { "variable": "loneParentPct", "entryP": 9.41e-07, "step": 4 } ], "notes": "OLS on z-scored outcome and predictors; block-wise forward selection (entry p < 0.05, max 2 predictors per block, VIF <= 5, max 8 predictors, sensitive variables excluded); n is complete cases with ballots > 0; exploratory model, not causal." }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "n": 86, "nDropped": 0, "k": 6, "r2": 0.6082, "adjR2": 0.5784, "fStat": 20.439, "fP": 2.71e-14, "conditionNumber": 11.5, "predictors": [ { "variable": "loneParentPct", "beta": -0.1823, "se": 0.0986, "t": -1.85, "p": 0.068125, "ci95": [ -0.3785, 0.0139 ], "vif": 1.96 }, { "variable": "pct65plus", "beta": 0.3418, "se": 0.1124, "t": 3.04, "p": 0.003211, "ci95": [ 0.118, 0.5655 ], "vif": 2.55 }, { "variable": "pctFullTimeFullYear", "beta": 0.4506, "se": 0.1177, "t": 3.828, "p": 0.000257, "ci95": [ 0.2163, 0.6848 ], "vif": 2.79 }, { "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "beta": -0.2437, "se": 0.0764, "t": -3.189, "p": 0.002047, "ci95": [ -0.3958, -0.0916 ], "vif": 1.18 }, { "variable": "pct25to44", "beta": -0.4285, "se": 0.1056, "t": -4.058, "p": 0.000115, "ci95": [ -0.6386, -0.2183 ], "vif": 2.25 }, { "variable": "pctNoCertificate", "beta": -0.2619, "se": 0.0942, "t": -2.781, "p": 0.00678, "ci95": [ -0.4493, -0.0744 ], "vif": 1.79 } ], "selectionPath": [ { "variable": "loneParentPct", "entryP": 1e-06, "step": 1 }, { "variable": "pct65plus", "entryP": 7e-06, "step": 2 }, { "variable": "pctFullTimeFullYear", "entryP": 0.003286, "step": 3 }, { "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "entryP": 0.008064, "step": 4 }, { "variable": "pct25to44", "entryP": 0.002006, "step": 5 }, { "variable": "pctNoCertificate", "entryP": 0.00678, "step": 6 } ], "notes": "OLS on z-scored outcome and predictors; block-wise forward selection (entry p < 0.05, max 2 predictors per block, VIF <= 5, max 8 predictors, sensitive variables excluded); n is complete cases with ballots > 0; exploratory model, not causal." } ], "clusters": { "demographic": { "method": "kmeans (k-means++, fixed seed, 100 inits for the final fit)", "featureIds": [ "pct65plus", "pct25to44", "loneParentPct", "medianHouseholdIncome", "pctPostsecondary", "pctNoCertificate", "unemploymentRate", "participationRate", "pctImmigrant", "pctNonOfficialLanguage", "pctIndigenous", "pctVisibleMinority", "medianDwellingValue" ], "n": 87, "k": 3, "kRule": "max silhouette; no k met the stability floor (flagged fragile)", "kSelection": [ { "k": 2, "inertia": 831.939, "silhouette": 0.2333, "meanBootARI": 0.6135 }, { "k": 3, "inertia": 669.596, "silhouette": 0.2603, "meanBootARI": 0.6501 }, { "k": 4, "inertia": 559.895, "silhouette": 0.2423, "meanBootARI": 0.5989 }, { "k": 5, "inertia": 490.15, "silhouette": 0.2522, "meanBootARI": 0.6059 }, { "k": 6, "inertia": 432.481, "silhouette": 0.2413, "meanBootARI": 0.5344 }, { "k": 7, "inertia": 391.549, "silhouette": 0.222, "meanBootARI": 0.5407 }, { "k": 8, "inertia": 358.099, "silhouette": 0.2305, "meanBootARI": 0.6127 } ], "silhouette": 0.256, "stability": { "meanBootARI": 0.6439, "p05ARI": 0.2719, "nBoot": 200, "fractionARIabove0_8": 0.32 }, "inertia": 668.992, "assignments": [ { "cluster": 0, "label": null, "n": 42, "wards": [ "11", "13", "22", "33", "40", "48", "49", "51", "52", "53", "54", "55", "56", "57", "58", "59", "60", "62", "63", "64", "65", "66", "67", "68", "69", "70", "71", "72", "73", "74", "75", "76", "77", "79", "80", "81", "82", "83", "84", "85", "86", "87" ], "profile": { "pct65plus": 0.442, "pct25to44": -0.528, "loneParentPct": -0.139, "medianHouseholdIncome": -0.092, "pctPostsecondary": -0.472, "pctNoCertificate": 0.312, "unemploymentRate": -0.535, "participationRate": -0.289, "pctImmigrant": -0.835, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": -0.656, "pctIndigenous": 0.403, "pctVisibleMinority": -0.802, "medianDwellingValue": -0.401 }, "topLoadings": [ { "variable": "pctImmigrant", "meanZ": -0.835 }, { "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "meanZ": -0.802 }, { "variable": "pctNonOfficialLanguage", "meanZ": -0.656 }, { "variable": "unemploymentRate", "meanZ": -0.535 } ], "meanOutcome": { "remainShare": 66.54, "turnout18": 63.8, "turnoutCitizen18": 69.44, "q1to9YesShareMean": 62.96, "advanceShare": 47.07, "vbmShare": 7.47 } }, { "cluster": 1, "label": "High Postsecondary / High Dwelling value / Low No certificate", "n": 26, "wards": [ "03", "04", "06", "08", "09", "12", "14", "16", "18", "19", "20", "21", "23", "24", "25", "26", "31", "37", "42", "43", "44", "45", "46", "47", "50", "61" ], "profile": { "pct65plus": -0.696, "pct25to44": 0.695, "loneParentPct": -0.671, "medianHouseholdIncome": 0.647, "pctPostsecondary": 1.11, "pctNoCertificate": -0.891, "unemploymentRate": -0.113, "participationRate": 0.86, "pctImmigrant": 0.75, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 0.501, "pctIndigenous": -0.521, "pctVisibleMinority": 0.672, "medianDwellingValue": 0.931 }, "topLoadings": [ { "variable": "pctPostsecondary", "meanZ": 1.11 }, { "variable": "medianDwellingValue", "meanZ": 0.931 }, { "variable": "pctNoCertificate", "meanZ": -0.891 }, { "variable": "participationRate", "meanZ": 0.86 } ], "meanOutcome": { "remainShare": 82.04, "turnout18": 63.06, "turnoutCitizen18": 74.36, "q1to9YesShareMean": 45.77, "advanceShare": 50.48, "vbmShare": 13.95 } }, { "cluster": 2, "label": "High Unemployment / High Lone-parent", "n": 19, "wards": [ "01", "02", "05", "07", "10", "15", "17", "27", "28", "29", "30", "32", "34", "35", "36", "38", "39", "41", "78" ], "profile": { "pct65plus": -0.024, "pct25to44": 0.216, "loneParentPct": 1.226, "medianHouseholdIncome": -0.682, "pctPostsecondary": -0.476, "pctNoCertificate": 0.53, "unemploymentRate": 1.337, "participationRate": -0.539, "pctImmigrant": 0.82, "pctNonOfficialLanguage": 0.763, "pctIndigenous": -0.178, "pctVisibleMinority": 0.854, "medianDwellingValue": -0.387 }, "topLoadings": [ { "variable": "unemploymentRate", "meanZ": 1.337 }, { "variable": "loneParentPct", "meanZ": 1.226 }, { "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "meanZ": 0.854 }, { "variable": "pctImmigrant", "meanZ": 0.82 } ], "meanOutcome": { "remainShare": 84.29, "turnout18": 45.56, "turnoutCitizen18": 54.24, "q1to9YesShareMean": 43.4, "advanceShare": 39.62, "vbmShare": 23.71 } } ], "featureSelectionNote": [ "Clustered on the 13 picker-default demographic variables (pre-registered, interpretable, less collinear than the full 39-variable portrait). Measured alternative: all 39 variables gives max silhouette 0.202 and bootstrap mean ARI 0.535; the picker subset gives 0.260 / 0.660. Neither reaches the 0.70 stability floor, so labels are omitted where the profile is not strong and the block is flagged fragile in findings." ] }, "outcome": { "method": "kmeans (k-means++, fixed seed, 100 inits for the final fit)", "featureIds": [ "q1YesShare", "q2YesShare", "q3YesShare", "q4YesShare", "q5YesShare", "q6YesShare", "q7YesShare", "q8YesShare", "q9YesShare", "remainShare" ], "n": 86, "k": 2, "kRule": "max silhouette among k with bootstrap mean ARI >= 0.7", "kSelection": [ { "k": 2, "inertia": 196.716, "silhouette": 0.6471, "meanBootARI": 0.9908 }, { "k": 3, "inertia": 137.768, "silhouette": 0.4795, "meanBootARI": 0.6733 }, { "k": 4, "inertia": 85.355, "silhouette": 0.4454, "meanBootARI": 0.8365 }, { "k": 5, "inertia": 63.803, "silhouette": 0.417, "meanBootARI": 0.8375 }, { "k": 6, "inertia": 56.337, "silhouette": 0.373, "meanBootARI": 0.7084 }, { "k": 7, "inertia": 49.099, "silhouette": 0.3548, "meanBootARI": 0.7567 }, { "k": 8, "inertia": 44.58, "silhouette": 0.3163, "meanBootARI": 0.7346 } ], "silhouette": 0.6471, "stability": { "meanBootARI": 0.9873, "p05ARI": 0.9081, "nBoot": 200, "fractionARIabove0_8": 1.0 }, "inertia": 196.716, "assignments": [ { "cluster": 0, "label": "Low remainShare / High q3YesShare / High q8YesShare", "n": 35, "wards": [ "47", "48", "49", "51", "52", "53", "54", "55", "56", "57", "58", "59", "60", "61", "62", "63", "64", "65", "66", "67", "68", "69", "73", "74", "75", "76", "77", "78", "79", "80", "82", "84", "85", "86", "87" ], "profile": { "q1YesShare": 1.025, "q2YesShare": 1.055, "q3YesShare": 1.057, "q4YesShare": 1.055, "q5YesShare": 1.052, "q6YesShare": 1.053, "q7YesShare": 1.054, "q8YesShare": 1.057, "q9YesShare": 1.044, "remainShare": -1.068 }, "topLoadings": [ { "variable": "remainShare", "meanZ": -1.068 }, { "variable": "q3YesShare", "meanZ": 1.057 }, { "variable": "q8YesShare", "meanZ": 1.057 }, { "variable": "q2YesShare", "meanZ": 1.055 } ], "meanOutcome": { "remainShare": 62.48, "turnout18": 62.41, "turnoutCitizen18": 68.01, "q1to9YesShareMean": 67.12, "advanceShare": 47.98, "vbmShare": 7.41 } }, { "cluster": 1, "label": null, "n": 51, "wards": [ "01", "02", "03", "04", "05", "06", "07", "08", "09", "10", "11", "12", "13", "14", "15", "16", "17", "18", "19", "20", "21", "22", "23", "24", "25", "26", "27", "28", "29", "30", "31", "32", "33", "35", "36", "37", "38", "39", "40", "41", "42", "43", "44", "45", "46", "50", "70", "71", "72", "81", "83" ], "profile": { "q1YesShare": -0.704, "q2YesShare": -0.724, "q3YesShare": -0.726, "q4YesShare": -0.724, "q5YesShare": -0.722, "q6YesShare": -0.722, "q7YesShare": -0.723, "q8YesShare": -0.726, "q9YesShare": -0.716, "remainShare": 0.733 }, "topLoadings": [ { "variable": "remainShare", "meanZ": 0.733 }, { "variable": "q3YesShare", "meanZ": -0.726 }, { "variable": "q8YesShare", "meanZ": -0.726 }, { "variable": "q2YesShare", "meanZ": -0.724 } ], "meanOutcome": { "remainShare": 83.49, "turnout18": 57.94, "turnoutCitizen18": 67.57, "q1to9YesShareMean": 44.44, "advanceShare": 45.56, "vbmShare": 16.54 } } ] } }, "spatial": { "weights": "queen, row-standardised", "contiguity": { "tolDegrees": 0.001, "nQueenEdges": 240, "nRookEdges": 215, "neighboursMean": 5.517, "neighboursMin": 1, "neighboursMax": 12, "islands": [], "minDistanceNonNeighbour": 0.003901, "note": "Queen contiguity from data/geo/alberta-eds.geojson, tolerance 1e-3 degrees (edge count plateau 3e-4..3e-3, no near-miss pairs; see notes/analysis.md). Row-standardised weights. Permutation p is the upper tail for positive spatial autocorrelation." }, "neighboursMean": 5.517, "moran": [ { "variable": "remainShare", "type": "outcome", "I": 0.7215, "expected": -0.0118, "pPermutation": 0.0001, "pTwoSided": 0.0001, "permZ": 11.08, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 86, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" }, { "variable": "turnout18", "type": "outcome", "I": 0.3764, "expected": -0.0118, "pPermutation": 0.0001, "pTwoSided": 0.0001, "permZ": 5.79, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 86, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" }, { "variable": "medianHouseholdIncome", "type": "demographic", "I": 0.2665, "expected": -0.0116, "pPermutation": 0.0002, "pTwoSided": 0.0002, "permZ": 4.41, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 87, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" }, { "variable": "pct65plus", "type": "demographic", "I": 0.189, "expected": -0.0116, "pPermutation": 0.0027, "pTwoSided": 0.0029, "permZ": 3.03, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 87, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" }, { "variable": "pctPostsecondary", "type": "demographic", "I": 0.5823, "expected": -0.0116, "pPermutation": 0.0001, "pTwoSided": 0.0001, "permZ": 8.94, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 87, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" }, { "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "type": "demographic", "I": 0.5006, "expected": -0.0116, "pPermutation": 0.0001, "pTwoSided": 0.0001, "permZ": 7.74, "nPerm": 9999, "n": 87, "weights": "queen, row-standardised" } ], "neighbourSimilarity": [ { "variable": "remainShare", "madNeighbour": 6.748, "madAllPairs": 13.076, "madRatio": 0.516, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.858 }, { "variable": "turnout18", "madNeighbour": 11.804, "madAllPairs": 15.929, "madRatio": 0.741, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.612 }, { "variable": "medianHouseholdIncome", "madNeighbour": 17077.917, "madAllPairs": 21776.049, "madRatio": 0.784, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.544 }, { "variable": "pct65plus", "madNeighbour": 4.43, "madAllPairs": 4.978, "madRatio": 0.89, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.426 }, { "variable": "pctPostsecondary", "madNeighbour": 7.675, "madAllPairs": 12.273, "madRatio": 0.625, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.778 }, { "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "madNeighbour": 14.073, "madAllPairs": 22.162, "madRatio": 0.635, "neighbourMeanCorrelation": 0.747 } ] }, "questionMatrix": { "ids": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11 ], "labels": { "1": "Immigration control", "2": "Program eligibility", "3": "12-month residency", "4": "Health & school fees", "5": "Citizenship to vote", "6": "Provincial judges", "7": "Abolish the Senate", "8": "Opt out, keep funding", "9": "Provincial law priority", "11": "Alberta's place" }, "cells": [ { "a": 1, "b": 2, "pearson": 0.9496, "spearman": 0.9558, "pPearson": 4.3e-44, "pSpearman": 1.95e-46, "n": 86, "q": 8.41e-44 }, { "a": 1, "b": 3, "pearson": 0.9421, "spearman": 0.9408, "pPearson": 1.23e-41, "pSpearman": 3.22e-41, "n": 86, "q": 1.91e-41 }, { "a": 1, "b": 4, "pearson": 0.9259, "spearman": 0.9171, "pPearson": 2.93e-37, "pSpearman": 2.67e-35, "n": 86, "q": 3.3e-37 }, { "a": 1, "b": 5, "pearson": 0.9293, "spearman": 0.922, "pPearson": 4.29e-38, "pSpearman": 2.32e-36, "n": 86, "q": 5.36e-38 }, { "a": 1, "b": 6, "pearson": 0.9212, "spearman": 0.9099, "pPearson": 3.41e-36, "pSpearman": 7.59e-34, "n": 86, "q": 3.74e-36 }, { "a": 1, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.9266, "spearman": 0.9216, "pPearson": 1.95e-37, "pSpearman": 2.77e-36, "n": 86, "q": 2.25e-37 }, { "a": 1, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9369, "spearman": 0.9301, "pPearson": 4.21e-40, "pSpearman": 2.72e-38, "n": 86, "q": 5.93e-40 }, { "a": 1, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.915, "spearman": 0.9202, "pPearson": 7.44e-35, "pSpearman": 5.83e-36, "n": 86, "q": 7.44e-35 }, { "a": 1, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9267, "spearman": -0.952, "pPearson": 1.87e-37, "pSpearman": 5.9e-45, "n": 86, "q": 2.21e-37 }, { "a": 2, "b": 3, "pearson": 0.9749, "spearman": 0.9669, "pPearson": 1.48e-56, "pSpearman": 1.35e-51, "n": 86, "q": 1.11e-55 }, { "a": 2, "b": 4, "pearson": 0.9551, "spearman": 0.9448, "pPearson": 3.85e-46, "pSpearman": 1.86e-42, "n": 86, "q": 1.44e-45 }, { "a": 2, "b": 5, "pearson": 0.9517, "spearman": 0.9354, "pPearson": 7.96e-45, "pSpearman": 1.08e-39, "n": 86, "q": 1.79e-44 }, { "a": 2, "b": 6, "pearson": 0.9472, "spearman": 0.9263, "pPearson": 2.9e-43, "pSpearman": 2.26e-37, "n": 86, "q": 5.23e-43 }, { "a": 2, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.9543, "spearman": 0.9396, "pPearson": 7.84e-46, "pSpearman": 6.89e-41, "n": 86, "q": 2.35e-45 }, { "a": 2, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9529, "spearman": 0.9343, "pPearson": 2.81e-45, "pSpearman": 2.19e-39, "n": 86, "q": 6.65e-45 }, { "a": 2, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9208, "spearman": 0.912, "pPearson": 4.19e-36, "pSpearman": 2.88e-34, "n": 86, "q": 4.49e-36 }, { "a": 2, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9366, "spearman": -0.9503, "pPearson": 5.28e-40, "pSpearman": 2.45e-44, "n": 86, "q": 7.2e-40 }, { "a": 3, "b": 4, "pearson": 0.9665, "spearman": 0.9557, "pPearson": 2.29e-51, "pSpearman": 2.1e-46, "n": 86, "q": 1.29e-50 }, { "a": 3, "b": 5, "pearson": 0.9602, "spearman": 0.9503, "pPearson": 2.75e-48, "pSpearman": 2.38e-44, "n": 86, "q": 1.38e-47 }, { "a": 3, "b": 6, "pearson": 0.9507, "spearman": 0.9321, "pPearson": 1.73e-44, "pSpearman": 8.36e-39, "n": 86, "q": 3.53e-44 }, { "a": 3, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.9554, "spearman": 0.9442, "pPearson": 2.8e-46, "pSpearman": 2.91e-42, "n": 86, "q": 1.14e-45 }, { "a": 3, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9548, "spearman": 0.9439, "pPearson": 5.15e-46, "pSpearman": 3.47e-42, "n": 86, "q": 1.78e-45 }, { "a": 3, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9192, "spearman": 0.9088, "pPearson": 9.55e-36, "pSpearman": 1.23e-33, "n": 86, "q": 9.99e-36 }, { "a": 3, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9308, "spearman": -0.9521, "pPearson": 1.8e-38, "pSpearman": 5.55e-45, "n": 86, "q": 2.31e-38 }, { "a": 4, "b": 5, "pearson": 0.9511, "spearman": 0.9389, "pPearson": 1.27e-44, "pSpearman": 1.16e-40, "n": 86, "q": 2.72e-44 }, { "a": 4, "b": 6, "pearson": 0.9539, "spearman": 0.9427, "pPearson": 1.12e-45, "pSpearman": 8.13e-42, "n": 86, "q": 3.1e-45 }, { "a": 4, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.9567, "spearman": 0.9414, "pPearson": 8.37e-47, "pSpearman": 2.03e-41, "n": 86, "q": 3.77e-46 }, { "a": 4, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.948, "spearman": 0.9232, "pPearson": 1.52e-43, "pSpearman": 1.22e-36, "n": 86, "q": 2.86e-43 }, { "a": 4, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9463, "spearman": 0.9251, "pPearson": 5.68e-43, "pSpearman": 4.37e-37, "n": 86, "q": 9.82e-43 }, { "a": 4, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9291, "spearman": -0.9316, "pPearson": 4.91e-38, "pSpearman": 1.13e-38, "n": 86, "q": 5.97e-38 }, { "a": 5, "b": 6, "pearson": 0.9845, "spearman": 0.9831, "pPearson": 2.83e-65, "pSpearman": 1.14e-63, "n": 86, "q": 4.25e-64 }, { "a": 5, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.981, "spearman": 0.9728, "pPearson": 1.34e-61, "pSpearman": 4e-55, "n": 86, "q": 1.51e-60 }, { "a": 5, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9711, "spearman": 0.9589, "pPearson": 5.2e-54, "pSpearman": 1.05e-47, "n": 86, "q": 3.35e-53 }, { "a": 5, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9349, "spearman": 0.9244, "pPearson": 1.48e-39, "pSpearman": 6.39e-37, "n": 86, "q": 1.96e-39 }, { "a": 5, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9191, "spearman": -0.9256, "pPearson": 1e-35, "pSpearman": 3.32e-37, "n": 86, "q": 1.03e-35 }, { "a": 6, "b": 7, "pearson": 0.9858, "spearman": 0.9745, "pPearson": 6.2e-67, "pSpearman": 2.62e-56, "n": 86, "q": 1.4e-65 }, { "a": 6, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9755, "spearman": 0.9577, "pPearson": 5.17e-57, "pSpearman": 3.33e-47, "n": 86, "q": 4.66e-56 }, { "a": 6, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9457, "spearman": 0.9275, "pPearson": 9.1e-43, "pSpearman": 1.22e-37, "n": 86, "q": 1.47e-42 }, { "a": 6, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9386, "spearman": -0.9287, "pPearson": 1.37e-40, "pSpearman": 5.92e-38, "n": 86, "q": 2.06e-40 }, { "a": 7, "b": 8, "pearson": 0.9864, "spearman": 0.9764, "pPearson": 1.04e-67, "pSpearman": 1.07e-57, "n": 86, "q": 4.66e-66 }, { "a": 7, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.953, "spearman": 0.9438, "pPearson": 2.48e-45, "pSpearman": 3.74e-42, "n": 86, "q": 6.19e-45 }, { "a": 7, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9457, "spearman": -0.9479, "pPearson": 9.16e-43, "pSpearman": 1.69e-43, "n": 86, "q": 1.47e-42 }, { "a": 8, "b": 9, "pearson": 0.9539, "spearman": 0.9453, "pPearson": 1.17e-45, "pSpearman": 1.29e-42, "n": 86, "q": 3.1e-45 }, { "a": 8, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9544, "spearman": -0.95, "pPearson": 7.04e-46, "pSpearman": 3.18e-44, "n": 86, "q": 2.26e-45 }, { "a": 9, "b": 11, "pearson": -0.9384, "spearman": -0.9322, "pPearson": 1.61e-40, "pSpearman": 7.71e-39, "n": 86, "q": 2.33e-40 } ], "note": "Question-question Pearson/Spearman matrix across divisions with counted ballots (ED 34 excluded); BH q across the 45 pairs." }, "outliers": [ { "outcome": "remainShare", "n": 86, "residualSd": 3.482, "note": "Residuals are on the outcome's percentage-point scale (model fitted on z-scores, back-transformed); divisions below 80% reporting are flagged - their observed outcome is a partial count.", "wards": [ { "code": "61", "name": "Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo", "residualZ": 2.85, "observed": 61.68, "predicted": 51.75, "reportingCompleteness": 0.2, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 9.93 percentage points; WARNING: only 20.0% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "35", "name": "Edmonton-Manning", "residualZ": 2.64, "observed": 89.48, "predicted": 80.27, "reportingCompleteness": 0.1525, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 9.21 percentage points; WARNING: only 15.2% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "63", "name": "Grande Prairie", "residualZ": -2.48, "observed": 62.55, "predicted": 71.2, "reportingCompleteness": 0.8462, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 8.65 percentage points" }, { "code": "17", "name": "Calgary-Bhullar-McCall", "residualZ": 2.18, "observed": 89.27, "predicted": 81.7, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 7.57 percentage points" }, { "code": "78", "name": "Red Deer-North", "residualZ": -1.81, "observed": 69.77, "predicted": 76.07, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 6.30 percentage points" }, { "code": "28", "name": "Edmonton-Castle Downs", "residualZ": 1.8, "observed": 85.96, "predicted": 79.7, "reportingCompleteness": 0.2609, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 6.26 percentage points; WARNING: only 26.1% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "65", "name": "Highwood", "residualZ": -1.77, "observed": 65.58, "predicted": 71.74, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 6.16 percentage points" }, { "code": "79", "name": "Red Deer-South", "residualZ": -1.68, "observed": 70.46, "predicted": 76.31, "reportingCompleteness": 0.863, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 5.85 percentage points" }, { "code": "39", "name": "Edmonton-North West", "residualZ": 1.66, "observed": 88.01, "predicted": 82.24, "reportingCompleteness": 0.7941, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 5.77 percentage points; WARNING: only 79.4% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "49", "name": "Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock", "residualZ": 1.65, "observed": 58.61, "predicted": 52.85, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 5.76 percentage points" } ] }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "n": 86, "residualSd": 9.037, "note": "Residuals are on the outcome's percentage-point scale (model fitted on z-scores, back-transformed); divisions below 80% reporting are flagged - their observed outcome is a partial count.", "wards": [ { "code": "35", "name": "Edmonton-Manning", "residualZ": -3.94, "observed": 16.0, "predicted": 51.59, "reportingCompleteness": 0.1525, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 35.59 percentage points; WARNING: only 15.2% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "64", "name": "Grande Prairie-Wapiti", "residualZ": -3.01, "observed": 24.46, "predicted": 51.63, "reportingCompleteness": 0.4815, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 27.17 percentage points; WARNING: only 48.1% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "39", "name": "Edmonton-North West", "residualZ": -2.72, "observed": 32.51, "predicted": 57.13, "reportingCompleteness": 0.7941, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 24.62 percentage points; WARNING: only 79.4% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "51", "name": "Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul", "residualZ": -2.43, "observed": 28.35, "predicted": 50.35, "reportingCompleteness": 0.4865, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 22.00 percentage points; WARNING: only 48.6% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "47", "name": "Airdrie-Cochrane", "residualZ": 2.33, "observed": 88.92, "predicted": 67.86, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 21.06 percentage points" }, { "code": "60", "name": "Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche", "residualZ": -1.75, "observed": 24.08, "predicted": 39.91, "reportingCompleteness": 0.2857, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 15.83 percentage points; WARNING: only 28.6% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "28", "name": "Edmonton-Castle Downs", "residualZ": -1.51, "observed": 41.12, "predicted": 54.77, "reportingCompleteness": 0.2609, "note": "observed value is below the model prediction by 13.65 percentage points; WARNING: only 26.1% of polls reported at the snapshot, so the observed value is a partial count and this deviation may be an artifact" }, { "code": "58", "name": "Drayton Valley-Devon", "residualZ": 1.51, "observed": 73.42, "predicted": 59.78, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 13.64 percentage points" }, { "code": "24", "name": "Calgary-South East", "residualZ": 1.36, "observed": 79.95, "predicted": 67.67, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 12.28 percentage points" }, { "code": "69", "name": "Leduc-Beaumont", "residualZ": 1.28, "observed": 71.1, "predicted": 59.55, "reportingCompleteness": 1.0, "note": "observed value is above the model prediction by 11.55 percentage points" } ] } ], "regional": [ { "region": "Calgary", "n": 28, "nWithResults": 28, "remainShareMean": 81.83, "turnout18Mean": 61.79, "turnoutCitizen18Mean": 71.54, "q1to9YesShareMean": 46.71, "advanceShareMean": 51.32, "vbmShareMean": 13.99, "medianHouseholdIncomeMean": 102107.1, "pct65plusMean": 13.7, "pctPostsecondaryMean": 70.6, "pctVisibleMinorityMean": 39.1, "wards": [ "01", "02", "03", "04", "05", "06", "07", "08", "09", "10", "11", "12", "13", "14", "15", "16", "17", "18", "19", "20", "21", "22", "23", "24", "25", "26", "47", "48" ] }, { "region": "Central", "n": 12, "nWithResults": 12, "remainShareMean": 59.84, "turnout18Mean": 65.68, "turnoutCitizen18Mean": 71.31, "q1to9YesShareMean": 70.59, "advanceShareMean": 43.43, "vbmShareMean": 7.28, "medianHouseholdIncomeMean": 88166.7, "pct65plusMean": 17.6, "pctPostsecondaryMean": 56.0, "pctVisibleMinorityMean": 7.9, "wards": [ "53", "58", "59", "66", "67", "68", "74", "78", "79", "80", "86", "87" ] }, { "region": "Edmonton", "n": 27, "nWithResults": 26, "remainShareMean": 82.93, "turnout18Mean": 57.49, "turnoutCitizen18Mean": 66.01, "q1to9YesShareMean": 45.78, "advanceShareMean": 42.71, "vbmShareMean": 18.38, "medianHouseholdIncomeMean": 97322.2, "pct65plusMean": 14.8, "pctPostsecondaryMean": 65.9, "pctVisibleMinorityMean": 33.0, "wards": [ "27", "28", "29", "30", "31", "32", "33", "34", "35", "36", "37", "38", "39", "40", "41", "42", "43", "44", "45", "46", "62", "69", "75", "81", "82", "83", "84" ] }, { "region": "North", "n": 9, "nWithResults": 9, "remainShareMean": 60.31, "turnout18Mean": 43.84, "turnoutCitizen18Mean": 47.94, "q1to9YesShareMean": 64.7, "advanceShareMean": 41.89, "vbmShareMean": 8.87, "medianHouseholdIncomeMean": 108444.4, "pct65plusMean": 12.4, "pctPostsecondaryMean": 53.1, "pctVisibleMinorityMean": 11.4, "wards": [ "49", "51", "55", "60", "61", "63", "64", "70", "77" ] }, { "region": "South", "n": 11, "nWithResults": 11, "remainShareMean": 66.97, "turnout18Mean": 66.51, "turnoutCitizen18Mean": 74.53, "q1to9YesShareMean": 62.55, "advanceShareMean": 50.65, "vbmShareMean": 6.03, "medianHouseholdIncomeMean": 91863.6, "pct65plusMean": 18.1, "pctPostsecondaryMean": 58.8, "pctVisibleMinorityMean": 11.5, "wards": [ "50", "52", "54", "56", "57", "65", "71", "72", "73", "76", "85" ] } ], "topBottom": { "remainShare": { "top": [ { "code": "44", "name": "Edmonton-Strathcona", "value": 90.35 }, { "code": "35", "name": "Edmonton-Manning", "value": 89.48 }, { "code": "17", "name": "Calgary-Bhullar-McCall", "value": 89.27 }, { "code": "29", "name": "Edmonton-City Centre", "value": 88.97 }, { "code": "40", "name": "Edmonton-Riverview", "value": 88.27 }, { "code": "39", "name": "Edmonton-North West", "value": 88.01 }, { "code": "18", "name": "Calgary-Mountain View", "value": 87.98 }, { "code": "32", "name": "Edmonton-Glenora", "value": 87.81 }, { "code": "41", "name": "Edmonton-Rutherford", "value": 87.44 }, { "code": "46", "name": "Edmonton-Whitemud", "value": 87.1 } ], "bottom": [ { "code": "80", "name": "Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre", "value": 48.93 }, { "code": "55", "name": "Central Peace-Notley", "value": 49.34 }, { "code": "59", "name": "Drumheller-Stettler", "value": 51.38 }, { "code": "85", "name": "Taber-Warner", "value": 53.7 }, { "code": "58", "name": "Drayton Valley-Devon", "value": 54.66 }, { "code": "76", "name": "Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills", "value": 55.29 }, { "code": "66", "name": "Innisfail-Sylvan Lake", "value": 56.77 }, { "code": "54", "name": "Cardston-Siksika", "value": 56.94 }, { "code": "77", "name": "Peace River", "value": 57.5 }, { "code": "64", "name": "Grande Prairie-Wapiti", "value": 57.58 } ] }, "turnout18": { "top": [ { "code": "47", "name": "Airdrie-Cochrane", "value": 88.92 }, { "code": "84", "name": "Strathcona-Sherwood Park", "value": 80.74 }, { "code": "65", "name": "Highwood", "value": 80.35 }, { "code": "83", "name": "St. Albert", "value": 80.13 }, { "code": "24", "name": "Calgary-South East", "value": 79.95 }, { "code": "81", "name": "Sherwood Park", "value": 79.32 }, { "code": "67", "name": "Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland", "value": 75.78 }, { "code": "75", "name": "Morinville-St. Albert", "value": 75.69 }, { "code": "23", "name": "Calgary-Shaw", "value": 75.48 }, { "code": "11", "name": "Calgary-Fish Creek", "value": 74.22 } ], "bottom": [ { "code": "35", "name": "Edmonton-Manning", "value": 16.0 }, { "code": "60", "name": "Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche", "value": 24.08 }, { "code": "64", "name": "Grande Prairie-Wapiti", "value": 24.46 }, { "code": "51", "name": "Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul", "value": 28.35 }, { "code": "39", "name": "Edmonton-North West", "value": 32.51 }, { "code": "17", "name": "Calgary-Bhullar-McCall", "value": 34.55 }, { "code": "61", "name": "Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo", "value": 36.43 }, { "code": "30", "name": "Edmonton-Decore", "value": 36.51 }, { "code": "07", "name": "Calgary-East", "value": 39.0 }, { "code": "10", "name": "Calgary-Falconridge", "value": 40.55 } ] }, "q1to9YesShareMean": { "top": [ { "code": "59", "name": "Drumheller-Stettler", "value": 77.03 }, { "code": "76", "name": "Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills", "value": 75.87 }, { "code": "80", "name": "Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre", "value": 75.23 }, { "code": "86", "name": "Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright", "value": 74.56 }, { "code": "85", "name": "Taber-Warner", "value": 74.47 }, { "code": "68", "name": "Lacombe-Ponoka", "value": 73.27 }, { "code": "66", "name": "Innisfail-Sylvan Lake", "value": 73.26 }, { "code": "55", "name": "Central Peace-Notley", "value": 73.13 }, { "code": "64", "name": "Grande Prairie-Wapiti", "value": 73.05 }, { "code": "87", "name": "West Yellowhead", "value": 72.78 } ], "bottom": [ { "code": "44", "name": "Edmonton-Strathcona", "value": 28.62 }, { "code": "17", "name": "Calgary-Bhullar-McCall", "value": 33.76 }, { "code": "25", "name": "Calgary-Varsity", "value": 33.89 }, { "code": "18", "name": "Calgary-Mountain View", "value": 36.48 }, { "code": "29", "name": "Edmonton-City Centre", "value": 36.49 }, { "code": "37", "name": "Edmonton-Meadows", "value": 37.17 }, { "code": "32", "name": "Edmonton-Glenora", "value": 37.81 }, { "code": "40", "name": "Edmonton-Riverview", "value": 37.98 }, { "code": "04", "name": "Calgary-Buffalo", "value": 38.89 }, { "code": "10", "name": "Calgary-Falconridge", "value": 39.34 } ] } }, "sensitivity": { "note": "Partial-results sensitivity: every outcome association is also computed on the 43 divisions fully reported at the frozen snapshot (reportingCompleteness == 1; 5089/5583 polls, 91.1517%). directionStable = same sign in both subsets; magnitudeStable = |delta r| <= 0.20; stable = both.", "family": "demographic x outcome (Pearson r)", "cells": [ { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "population", "rAll": 0.3205, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0282, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2923, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pct65plus", "rAll": -0.2063, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.2905, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0842, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pct25to44", "rAll": 0.4499, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.4406, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0093, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pct45to64", "rAll": -0.1865, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.2951, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1086, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pct18to24", "rAll": 0.4789, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.509, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0301, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctChildren0to17", "rAll": -0.399, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.3126, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0864, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctFemale", "rAll": 0.4271, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2877, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1393, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "avgHouseholdSize", "rAll": -0.1012, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.1687, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0676, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctLonePersonHouseholds", "rAll": 0.1298, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2012, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0713, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "loneParentPct", "rAll": 0.1924, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2365, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0441, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctRenterHouseholds", "rAll": 0.4152, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.4521, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0369, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "medianHouseholdIncome", "rAll": 0.0266, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0215, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.005, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "medianFamilyIncome", "rAll": 0.111, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.1623, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0513, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "medianIndividualIncome", "rAll": 0.045, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0747, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0297, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "lowIncomePct", "rAll": -0.081, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0786, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1596, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctPostsecondary", "rAll": 0.5969, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5133, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0836, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctBachelorPlus", "rAll": 0.724, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.7234, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0006, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctNoCertificate", "rAll": -0.4561, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.2926, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1635, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctHighSchool", "rAll": -0.6383, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.6347, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0036, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "unemploymentRate", "rAll": 0.5317, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5124, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0193, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "participationRate", "rAll": 0.1546, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.1536, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.001, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "employmentRate", "rAll": -0.0208, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.0047, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0162, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctFullTimeFullYear", "rAll": 0.0134, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0387, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0253, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctImmigrant", "rAll": 0.7365, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.6873, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0491, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctCitizens18plus", "rAll": -0.5402, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5907, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0505, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctNonOfficialLanguage", "rAll": 0.513, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5725, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0596, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctFrench", "rAll": 0.1455, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.3159, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1704, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctIndigenous", "rAll": -0.4253, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5633, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1381, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "rAll": 0.7138, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.6632, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0506, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctCatholic", "rAll": 0.2175, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2124, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0051, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctChristian", "rAll": -0.605, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5457, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0592, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctNoReligion", "rAll": -0.2036, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.2832, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0796, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctMuslim", "rAll": 0.624, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5661, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0579, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctSikh", "rAll": 0.2953, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2682, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0271, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctHindu", "rAll": 0.4802, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5273, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0471, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "medianDwellingValue", "rAll": 0.434, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.3826, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0514, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "rAll": -0.3328, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.437, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1042, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "rAll": -0.5286, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5607, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0321, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "remainShare", "variable": "pctAgricultureForestry", "rAll": -0.8076, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.8057, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0019, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "population", "rAll": 0.0435, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0945, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.051, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pct65plus", "rAll": 0.4001, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2049, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1952, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pct25to44", "rAll": -0.3676, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.3986, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.031, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pct45to64", "rAll": 0.3868, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.3669, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0199, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pct18to24", "rAll": -0.3671, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5524, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1853, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctChildren0to17", "rAll": -0.0783, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2958, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.3741, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctFemale", "rAll": 0.3911, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.3268, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0643, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "avgHouseholdSize", "rAll": -0.1332, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.1036, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.2367, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctLonePersonHouseholds", "rAll": -0.0901, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.2188, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1287, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "loneParentPct", "rAll": -0.4985, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5461, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0476, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctRenterHouseholds", "rAll": -0.3599, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5465, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1865, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "medianHouseholdIncome", "rAll": 0.1379, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5677, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.4298, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "medianFamilyIncome", "rAll": 0.2171, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.622, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.4049, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "medianIndividualIncome", "rAll": 0.1939, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.7131, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.5192, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "lowIncomePct", "rAll": -0.2876, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5729, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2853, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctPostsecondary", "rAll": 0.3532, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.3008, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.0524, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctBachelorPlus", "rAll": 0.1747, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.055, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2297, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctNoCertificate", "rAll": -0.4196, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5311, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.1115, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctHighSchool", "rAll": -0.2192, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.1045, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1146, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "unemploymentRate", "rAll": -0.396, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.7689, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.3729, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "participationRate", "rAll": -0.0662, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.1024, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1686, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "employmentRate", "rAll": 0.0556, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2982, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.2426, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctFullTimeFullYear", "rAll": 0.1663, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.4674, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.3011, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctImmigrant", "rAll": -0.3481, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.6507, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.3026, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctCitizens18plus", "rAll": 0.4478, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.801, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.3532, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctNonOfficialLanguage", "rAll": -0.4504, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.7399, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2895, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctFrench", "rAll": -0.1053, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.0174, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1227, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctIndigenous", "rAll": -0.2339, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.1885, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.4224, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctVisibleMinority", "rAll": -0.4265, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.7091, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2826, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctCatholic", "rAll": -0.135, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2003, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.3353, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctChristian", "rAll": 0.2596, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.6575, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.3979, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctNoReligion", "rAll": 0.4199, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.5027, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0828, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctMuslim", "rAll": -0.5455, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.7435, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.198, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctSikh", "rAll": -0.2913, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5677, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.2764, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctHindu", "rAll": -0.2812, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": -0.5905, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": -0.3094, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "medianDwellingValue", "rAll": 0.3258, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.33, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.0042, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctOwnerHouseholds", "rAll": 0.3926, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.543, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.1503, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctMiningOilGas", "rAll": -0.1573, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.4756, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.6329, "directionStable": false, "magnitudeStable": false, "stable": false }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "variable": "pctAgricultureForestry", "rAll": 0.1102, "nAll": 86, "rComplete": 0.2192, "nComplete": 43, "deltaR": 0.109, "directionStable": true, "magnitudeStable": true, "stable": true } ], "regression": [ { "outcome": "remainShare", "nAll": 86, "r2All": 0.911, "adjR2All": 0.9066, "predictors": [ "pctAgricultureForestry", "pctMiningOilGas", "pctBachelorPlus", "loneParentPct" ], "nComplete": 43, "r2Complete": 0.9419, "adjR2Complete": 0.9357, "betaDirectionStable": true }, { "outcome": "turnout18", "nAll": 86, "r2All": 0.6082, "adjR2All": 0.5784, "predictors": [ "loneParentPct", "pct65plus", "pctFullTimeFullYear", "pctMiningOilGas", "pct25to44", "pctNoCertificate" ], "nComplete": 43, "r2Complete": 0.7803, "adjR2Complete": 0.7436, "betaDirectionStable": false } ], "reportingCompletenessCheck": { "outcome": "remainShare", "r": 0.0562, "p": 0.607578, "n": 86, "note": "Association between a division's poll-reporting completeness and its remain share at the snapshot; small values indicate the partial count is not obviously driving the remain pattern." } }, "findings": [ { "id": "f-remainShare-strongest", "headline": "Agriculture and forestry industry has the strongest negative association with remain share among the non-sensitive portrait variables", "evidence": "Pearson r = -0.8076 (p = 5.83e-21, BH q = 1.36e-18), Spearman rho = -0.7241, n = 86; fully-reported subset r = -0.8057 (n = 43), direction stable in the fully-reported subset: yes; magnitude stable: yes.", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Association across divisions only; 2021 Census portrait vs 2026 unofficial partial count; no causal interpretation." }, { "id": "f-turnout18-strongest", "headline": "Lone-parent families has the strongest negative association with turnout (population 18+) among the non-sensitive portrait variables", "evidence": "Pearson r = -0.4985 (p = 1e-06, BH q = 8e-06), Spearman rho = -0.5464, n = 86; fully-reported subset r = -0.5461 (n = 43), direction stable in the fully-reported subset: yes; magnitude stable: yes.", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Association across divisions only; 2021 Census portrait vs 2026 unofficial partial count; no causal interpretation." }, { "id": "f-sensitive-context", "headline": "Sensitive portrait variables are descriptively associated with remain share at the division level (context only)", "evidence": "Strongest descriptive associations with remain share among sensitive variables (n = 86): Immigrant population r = 0.7365 (q = 7.52e-14); Visible minority population r = 0.7138 (q = 4.73e-13); Muslim r = 0.624 (q = 2.47e-09). These variables are exported for description, are excluded from all regression models, and are not used as evidence about how people voted.", "confidence": "suggestive", "caveat": "Descriptive aggregate context only; sensitive variables (ethnicity, Indigenous identity, language, immigration, religion) must not be read as explanations of individual or collective vote choice; ecological fallacy applies." }, { "id": "f-sensitivity-unstable", "headline": "Some associations change in the fully-reported subset of divisions", "evidence": "Partial-results sensitivity across the fully-reported divisions: 1 association(s) flip sign with |r| >= 0.2 in the full set (for example Indigenous identity x Turnout (population 18+): r all = -0.2339, r complete = 0.1885); 15 association(s) keep their sign but shift by more than 0.20 (largest: Median individual income x Turnout (population 18+): r all = 0.1939, r complete = 0.7131).", "confidence": "fragile", "caveat": "Treat these as reporting-sensitive until the feed completes and the analysis is rerun." }, { "id": "f-regression-remainShare", "headline": "A 4-predictor demographic model co-varies with remain share (R2 = 0.911)", "evidence": "OLS on z-scored variables, n = 86, R2 = 0.911, adj R2 = 0.9066, F p = 1.08e-41; predictors: pctAgricultureForestry, pctMiningOilGas, pctBachelorPlus, loneParentPct; all VIF <= 5.", "confidence": "suggestive", "caveat": "Exploratory selection with a stated rule; sensitive variables excluded; no causal interpretation." }, { "id": "f-regression-turnout18", "headline": "A 6-predictor demographic model co-varies with turnout (population 18+) (R2 = 0.6082)", "evidence": "OLS on z-scored variables, n = 86, R2 = 0.6082, adj R2 = 0.5784, F p = 2.71e-14; predictors: loneParentPct, pct65plus, pctFullTimeFullYear, pctMiningOilGas, pct25to44, pctNoCertificate; all VIF <= 5.", "confidence": "suggestive", "caveat": "Exploratory selection with a stated rule; sensitive variables excluded; no causal interpretation." }, { "id": "f-spatial-remainShare", "headline": "Remain share is spatially clustered across neighbouring divisions", "evidence": "Moran's I = 0.7215 (expected -0.0118), permutation p = 0.0001 over 9999 permutations, n = 86, queen row-standardised weights.", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Spatial autocorrelation does not identify a cause; geography and demography co-vary." }, { "id": "f-spatial-turnout18", "headline": "Turnout (population 18+) is spatially clustered across neighbouring divisions", "evidence": "Moran's I = 0.3764 (expected -0.0118), permutation p = 0.0001 over 9999 permutations, n = 86, queen row-standardised weights.", "confidence": "suggestive", "caveat": "Spatial autocorrelation does not identify a cause; geography and demography co-vary." }, { "id": "f-outcome-clusters", "headline": "Question outcomes fall into 2 clusters; mean remain share ranges from 62.48% to 83.49% across them", "evidence": "k-means on z-scored Q1-Q9 and Q11 shares, k = 2 chosen by max silhouette among k with bootstrap mean ARI >= 0.7; silhouette = 0.6471, bootstrap mean ARI = 0.9873 over 200 resamples; cluster sizes [35, 51].", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Clusters are descriptive groupings, not causal types." }, { "id": "f-demographic-clusters", "headline": "The demographic portrait groups the 87 divisions into 3 clusters with different mean remain shares", "evidence": "k-means on z-scored demographic variables, k = 3 chosen by max silhouette; no k met the stability floor (flagged fragile); silhouette = 0.256, bootstrap mean ARI = 0.6439; profile labels: [None, 'High Postsecondary / High Dwelling value / Low No certificate', 'High Unemployment / High Lone-parent'].", "confidence": "fragile", "caveat": "Descriptive grouping of divisions; sensitive variables in the profile are context only and do not explain individual behaviour." }, { "id": "f-question-matrix", "headline": "The nine policy questions co-vary strongly with each other across divisions", "evidence": "Mean absolute Pearson r across the 45 question pairs = 0.948; median = 0.95; n = 86 divisions with counted ballots.", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Aggregate question-level co-variation; not evidence about individual voters." }, { "id": "f-outlier", "headline": "Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo deviates most from the demographic model for remain share", "evidence": "Residual z = 2.85 (observed 61.68, predicted 51.75); n = 86; residual sd = 3.482; reporting completeness = 20.0% at the snapshot.", "confidence": "fragile", "caveat": "A single-division deviation can reflect local factors outside the census portrait, candidate/contest effects, partial reporting, or data revision; descriptive only." }, { "id": "f-partial-count", "headline": "Every outcome statistic is based on a partial, unofficial count", "evidence": "Frozen snapshot: 86 divisions with counted ballots; the election source reports 5089/5583 polls (91.15%) and 43/87 divisions fully reported at capture.", "confidence": "robust", "caveat": "Recompute from the final official results before drawing conclusions." } ] }